This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate contests for us for this Sunday card. The main GPP is that a $10 buy-in and $20k goes to 1st place, and there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for this last competition and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at the $20k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic quantity of play into money games. With that said, let’s get into some plays I like too as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your most powerful play on the background, in my view. I believe he’ll be the better fighter anywhere this battle goes, and he must predominate. I enjoy locking that triumph in my money game and I think he’s a good shot at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to become hot in tournaments so in the event that you would like to fade the possession there and attempt to become more contrarian, I would definitely need some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is tough so that he can continue all 3 rounds and when he does then Luque might only score in the 80s and that won’t win any GPPs. But, we could use an ~80-point triumph in cash games since we only have to beat half the area unlike the tournaments.
GPP play of the week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week due to the chances. A little more than a week ago he was a -255 favorite and that is what resulted in his high $95 price tag. Now he is just -155 and all the worth is on Ngannou at his 7.2k price tag. I expect Ngannou are the greatest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he will kill off close to half the area. Furthermore, if Cain wins he is likely scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his ownership to go down the longer his betting line decreases and that’s what makes him a great GPP play. He’s a 0-point floor, so I do not care for him in cash game, but for GPPs we want boom or bust to try and get to that 1st place prize.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He’s $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he’s only a +125 underdog. I believe he’s a good shot of winning this battle and I am picking him to get his hand raised. I anticipate this to be an extremely close battle, but I believe Fili is going to probably be the fighter striking in the greater rate and that’s what I believe do it for him to the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili having 100+ stage upside down but we do not really require that in his $7.4k price label. I believe he’s a good shot at getting at 10x, so he’s playable in all formats for me personally.
Fade of this week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of the week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I think have difficulty seeing her on the 20k lineup at her wages. I enjoy the 9k range a great deal more than her and all of them have higher ceilings with their grappling-based game programs. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC debut, but this is because she didn’t utilize grappling there. I don’t see her doing this in this game because I presume Evans-Smith has the edge on the ground and she should be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this fight, then she’s going to need to get it done on the feet and I really don’t see her with a high ceiling without a finish. The only reason to utilize her is because she is going to be super low possessed, and it’ll make your lineup contrarian, but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 57-34 to get +188.13u (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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